
GYC Insights
An extensive library of financial articles rooted in research and data-science, written with the experience of decades in the industry.
Follies of Forecasting - Why market predictions do not work
Investors should not succumb to the noise and distractions from forecasts and predictions, but instead stick to a disciplined, systematic investment plan in order to have a higher probability of making money in the long run.
Buffett's Advice to Layman Investors: Keep It Simple and Keep It Cheap
In Warren Buffett’s latest shareholder letter, he again let loose on the investment community, in particular high-fee active managers – especially hedge fund managers, whom he claims do not provide value to investors.
The Market Works In Cycles
Many investors or potential investors we meet assume that once they put their money to work, they are guaranteed a return. Unfortunately, that is not how investing works.
Guess What? Capitalism Works and You Are Owed a Return
Companies and countries have used markets for years to raise money from public investors. In return, investors receive compensation for the risk they take. But not all companies - or countries - are the same.
Do You Know How Much Your Investments Could Lose?
Do you know how much money your investments could lose? What is VaR and why it is better than the investment industry’s favourite metric - volatility?
The Failure of Market Predictions - Part 2
Wouldn’t it be great to know in advance whether the stock market will rise or fall and position ourselves to profit from it? In reality, nobody can get it right - not even the giants in investing. We show why it is detrimental to one’s health and wealth to play this fool’s game.
A Look Back at 2016
Every year brings its share of surprises. But how many of us could have imagined that 2016 would see the Chicago Cubs win the World Series, Bob Dylan receive the Nobel Prize in Literature, Donald Trump elected president, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average close out the year a whisker away from 20,000?
The Failure of Market Predictions - Part 1
In early 2016, as the stock market was correcting in earnest, market pundits and economists all but proclaimed the end of the current bull market. How did they get it so wrong?
Recency Illusion
Arnold Zwicky defined the Recency Illusion as ”the belief that things you have noticed only recently are in fact recent”. How does this illusion affect your investing decisions?
Overreacting During a Market Crash
Our analysis of markets over a 15 year period shows that markets go up more often than come down. In fact, the best market days typically follow a correction.
When Diversification Isn't A Free Lunch
Diversification has been called the only free lunch in investing. But can investors do even better?
Market Volatility
The market events of January 2016 provide an opportunity to examine several questions important to investors and revisit some fundamental principles of investing in capital markets.
Forecasting - Getting You Nowhere Since 1970
Jason Zweig best described forecasting as an attempt to predict the unknowable by measuring the irrelevant. Unfortunately, that is what almost all financial institutions in this world are set up to do.
Attraction to Rising Prices
Don’t we all love a good discount? Yet when there is a huge discount in stocks, people run away! Why is this so?
Chasing Hot Themes
How many times do we have a certain mandate, only to switch to something else when we hear of a good idea from a magazine, a friend or the news?
Should Investors Sell After a “Correction”?
Contrary to the beliefs of some investors, dramatic changes in security prices are not a sign that the financial system is broken but rather what we would expect to see if markets are working properly.