The Tariff Tantrum might lead to a trade war and a worsening economic environment, but it hasn’t shown up in the data (yet). Surprisingly enough, current signals showing that the risk of a global recession is at one of its lowest points in history.

High levels of concentration and the risks of a narrow market has historically caused market commentators to sound the alarm. But rising market concentration in the 1950s, 1990s, and 2010s to today, produced a better-than-average return. So what exactly should we be worried about?

Investors seem to be worried about whether growth can continue and, with what’s going on in the US juxtaposed against its stellar track record, what should they be doing. What can the data tell us?

Many market commentators have expressed their worry over the present sky-high valuations and market concentration, suggesting that these bring grim expectations for future returns. Breaking down the data allows us to consider whether that’s a reasonable assumption.

People often treat the stock market like a casino and actually, there is no other game of chance that such positive odds of winning like investing can, provided you take certain actions to stack the odds in your favour.

Could high expectations for the U.S. explain its sluggish start, compared to Europe and the Global market?

Would you have guessed that a group of people with the top 2% of IQ scores in the US would underperform the benchmark by 84%?

3 periods marked by narrow market leadership; will this instance result in the same market crash like the previous two?

Chinese stocks (MSCI China index) have performed +16% over the past month compared to US stocks (S&P 500), only +4.2% so far. Why hasn’t it impacted China yet?

When the news of DeepSeek hit, if you held Nvidia stock, you may have experienced a -20% loss; a broader tech sector ETF, maybe -6%; Global stocks, maybe -1%; and with a diversified and balanced portfolio, you might actually have gains at the end of the day.

The year is 2000, IBM fell out of the top 10 list and in 2024, only one name from that list remains, Microsoft. The recent market shakedown caused by DeepSeek bears resemblance to historical changes of old.

Nvidia stock returned +171.2% in 2024, a spectacular return; but it pales in comparison by almost 16 times to this particular security.

New year resolutions and investments tend to share the same problem: People lose sight of what made them committed in the first place.

-12% and +23%. 3500 basis points is the chasm between the prediction by JP Morgan and the actual outcome of the S&P 500 for 2024.

2 of the biggest mistakes you could do in investments are, (1) trying to perform for others, and (2) copying a strategy that might work for someone else but is just wrong for you.

20% in unrealised returns. That’s what listening to 2024’s predictions, which largely urged for caution and the safety of bonds, would’ve cost you.

Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 Index returned +13.35% per annum, but in the past century, every time this has happened, it was followed by a decade or more of lamentable performance.

Is everything in order for 2025? Now’s a good time as any to take stock.